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STUMPY’S BLOG – GIRLS BASKETBALL: CAN ANYONE BREAK UP THE TOP FOUR?

Posted On: Friday, February 08, 2008
By: new_league


By Scott Stump – Senior Editor

     While the boys side is filled with teams that have been up and down most of the season and tons of parity, the top of the girls’ rankings has been fairly steady, with teams shuffling among the top five or six as they knock each other off.
     With that said, I’ll take a swipe at some mock SCT seeds with the seeding meeting coming up on Sunday at Rumson-Fair Haven.
     The seeding committee consists of the following coaches: Marlboro’s Brian Nash (Class A North); Rumson’s George Sourlis (Class A
Central); Toms River North’s Vicki Gillen (Class A South); Monmouth’s
Audra Corson (Class B North); St. Rose’s Joe Roman (Class B Central)
and Point Boro’s Sean Henry (Class B South).
      First-round games start on Wednesday, Feb. 13, with games at the higher seed, unless the team that is seeded lower is an outright division champion. The second round follows on Friday, and all four quarterfinals will be held on Sunday, Feb. 17, at the gleaming new facilities at Long Branch. The semifinals will be on Tuesday, Feb. 19 at the Ritacco Center and the final will be on Feb. 23 at the Ritacco Center.
     Just to let everyone in a little bit on the process, teams are
pre-seeded based on their best wins, committee opinions, division
titles, etc. Then, if a team is pre-seeded behind a team that it beat
head-to-head, that team’s delegate can challenge to jump the team
pre-seeded ahead of it. The delegates then take a vote as to whether
that team can jump up a seed.
     The real question is whether anyone is going to break up semifinal meetings between the top four seeds. I would say Raritan, Howell and Freehold might have the best shot and St. Rose can’t totally be counted out. Freehold is eager to prove some people wrong, while the only thing I wonder about Raritan is how much gas it has left in the tank after a brutal Class A Central schedule. It’s hard enough getting regular-season wins in that division, let alone coming up with big SCT quarterfinal wins. Lacey is on a quest for respect among the Monmouth County brethren, and with a high-scoring backcourt, the Lions are capable if they get the right match-up.
      OK, here’s my take on how the seeding might shake out heading into this weekend’s action.

      1. St. John Vianney: This one is pretty much ironclad, as the Lancers boast two wins over Rumson-Fair Haven and Raritan, a win over Red Bank Catholic, a win over St. Rose and throw in a win over Christ the King (N.Y.) in there as well.

      2. Colts Neck: The Cougars’ best victory is over Rumson-Fair Haven from the WOBM Classic final, which should help cement them as the No. 2 seed. Their only loss is to Howell, which they avenged in their second meeting in Class A North.

      3. Rumson-Fair Haven: The Bulldogs have plenty of quality victories, with two wins over Red Bank Catholic and victories over St. Rose, Freehold, and Raritan as well as a nonconference victory over Christ the King (N.Y.). Beating St. Rose and locking this seed up was big because it allows them to potentially avoid St. John Vianney, which has beaten them twice, until the final, while also avoiding Raritan, which looks like the No. 5 seed. Raritan has played the Bulldogs tough in three straight games, including a 32-30 win in their last meeting. I’m sure Rumson is also itching to get even with Colts Neck after losing to the Cougars over the holidays.

     4. Red Bank Catholic: The Caseys have a win over St. John Vianney, two wins over Raritan and a win over St. Rose as well as some solid nonconference victories. That means a potential semifinal match-up with St. John Vianney. Those two teams never meet in this tournament, do they? RBC has a game against a dangerous Neptune team on Friday night to worry about as well.

     5. Raritan: It’s funny because I think the Rockets might actually want the No. 6 seed more, because it could mean another meeting with a team it has matched up well with, Rumson, in the quarterfinals, rather than a potential date with RBC, which it lost to twice. However, their wins over Rumson and Howell allow them to jump the Rebels and St. Rose, which was unable to get over the hump in any of its three games against St. John Vianney, Rumson and Red Bank Catholic.

     6. Howell: The Class A North co-champs have a win over No. 2 Colts Neck that should help the Rebels lock up this seed. I like to see teams play that haven’t already played in the regular season, so a Rumson-Howell quarterfinal could be intriguing.

     7. St. Rose: Now we’re getting into the land of teams that didn’t necessarily have that big win over a top Shore Conference opponent. St. Rose’s nonconference victories over Marist and St. Peter’s could be enough to land the Class B Central champs this seed.
 
     8. Freehold: I would’ve had Lacey here or maybe at No. 7 before the Lions’ loss to Southern, so we’ll go with the Class B North champs here. I could still see Lacey getting this spot because of Freehold’s losses to Freehold Township and Ocean with a depleted lineup. It will interesting to see how the committee views those games, especially because Freehold routed Ocean with a full lineup in their second meeting. Two wins over Neptune help Freehold’s case.

     9. Lacey: The Class A South champs are still 18-2 despite the loss to Southern, and there isn’t a team below them that necessarily has a win over a team seeded higher, unless those Freehold losses with members out of the lineup come into play.

   10. Middletown South: The Eagles have two wins over Freehold Township and nearly knocked off Colts Neck in a two-point loss, so they might try and make a play for the No. 9 seed.

   11. Freehold Township: The Patriots’ only losses are to teams ahead of them, which could earn them this spot, but they don’t have that signature win to hang on to, either, although they do have that win over Freehold, so we’ll see how that is weighted.

   12. Neptune: Only a loss to non-SCT qualifier Monmouth keeps this team from maybe being a little higher. The young Scarlet Fliers also have one last chance to shake things up with a game against No. 4 Red Bank Catholic on Friday night.

   13. Shore: This team was probably headed for a little bit of a higher seed, but a loss to Keyport stung the Blue Devils. They nearly stunned Rumson-Fair Haven on Wednesday, and all of their other losses are to teams ahead of them.

   14. Mater Dei: The Seraphs have put a scare into a bunch of teams this season, but just couldn’t quite get over the hump for a win. All of their losses are to teams ahead of them.

  15. Point Boro: I could see Keyport arguing for this spot because of a win over Shore, although a loss to Point Beach didn’t help the Red Raiders’ case. The Class B South champion Panthers took a hit with a loss to a Brick Memorial team that qualified for its first SCT in school history. This seed is really up for grabs amongst a bunch of teams. Point Boro beat Southern in the WOBM consolations, which keeps it above the Rams.

  16. Southern: The Rams had an up-and-down season, and this one is really tough to call as they have two losses to Brick Memorial, but also just handed No. 9 Lacey its first and only loss in Class A South.

  17. Brick Memorial: In for the first time in school history, the Mustangs have two wins over Southern and a win over Class  B South champion Point Boro, which could help it grab this spot over several teams, including possibly Southern.

  18. Keyport: The Red Raiders’ win over Shore could have them pushing for a higher seed than this, so we’ll see. It’s anyone’s game when you get down this far. You could throw Keyport, Manchester, Point Beach, Ocean and any of the others that clinch have clinched spots or will clinch spots this weekend into a blender to seed these final positions.

QUICK TAKE ON THE STATE PLAYOFF BRACKETS

    The state brackets have been released, which you can check out here if you haven’t seen them yet for your favorite team.
     Here are some quick thoughts:

  • St. Rose-Mater Dei is a great first-round game in Non-Public South B because Mater Dei pushed the Purple Roses hard in their two meetings this season. Trenton Catholic is a monster lurking on the bottom half of that side of the bracket, so the winner of St. Rose-Mater Dei is going to have a very tall order to even keep it close in the semis.
  • In Non-Public South A, while there are no guarantees, chances are that it will be Red Bank Catholic vs. St. John Vianney in the final. That’s a new one.
  • In Central Jersey Group IV, top-seeded Colts Neck could have to play Freehold Township for the third time this season in a second-round game, but, as has been the case for a while now, this bracket is ruled with an iron fist by Trenton, which reached the Tournament of Champions final last season and appears headed in that direction again. Howell will most likely get the first crack at the Tornadoes, who beat the Rebels in the CJ IV final last season, and then Colts Neck will be hoping for its shot in the sectional final.
  • In Central Jersey Group III, top-seeded Freehold has a real shot to bring home a title as Willingboro is not the power it usually is, and Freehold would be the favorite in any game against Middletown South, Neptune or Point Boro.
  • In Central Jersey Group II, eight-time defending champion Rumson-Fair Haven got what it wanted, which was pesky nemesis Raritan on the other side of the bracket. Raritan could face Shore in the second round and the winner of that game could see the Bulldogs in the final if it can get past top-seeded A.L. Johnson. Rumson has beaten Shore twice this season and split with Raritan.
  • A semifinal appearance by Keyport in Central Jersey Group I would be a nice accomplishment, and then the Red Raiders can get greedy and go for more.
  • South Jersey Group IV is loaded with tough teams like Cherokee, Eastern and perennial power Absegami, so if Lacey, Southern or Toms River North advance even a few rounds, that’s a good run.
  • If a young Manchester team can at least pick up one win in the South Jersey Group II bracket and gain some experience, that’s all you could ask for.
  • Point Beach has a tough game right off the bat on the road down at second-seeded Salem in South Jersey Group I.

Finally, some quick extras from this week:

  • Congrats to Brick Memorial for reaching its first SCT in school history. Brick Memorial student Dylan Hornblum recently did a video feature on the Mustangs that you can watch here.
  • How about Southern sophomore Kristen Sharkey, who has been playing like a great white recently with a career-high 44 points in a loss to Brick Memorial and then 28 in an upset of Lacey. She clearly has stamped herself as one to watch coming into the SCT because the Rams will have upset potential if she is going to put up anything near those numbers.
  • Rumson has some of the best guard depth around, as freshman Ellie Wilbur stepped in for injured Candice Green in a key win over St. Rose. The Bulldogs pretty much have to be deep given the difficulty of their schedule.
  • Also, congrats to Holmdel senior Kim Fiorentino, who passed the 1,000-point mark on Thursday night with a game-high 26 points against Jackson that brought her to 1,001 for her career. If anyone from Holmdel has a digital photo of Kim being honored for getting 1,000, e-mail it to me and I will post it.

E-mail: [email protected]

   
     

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